Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 4.257574 4.661437 5.111507 5.655445 6.302252 7.056367 8.016890
2024-12-29 3.753678 4.282821 4.916552 5.749377 6.844416 8.282434 10.405604
2025-01-05 3.360374 3.928875 4.640177 5.626354 7.014680 9.003832 12.312989
2025-01-12 3.070866 3.653543 4.406088 5.492281 7.105622 9.590734 14.194740
2025-01-19 2.815797 3.391092 4.150944 5.280129 7.026050 9.872465 15.645744
2025-01-26 2.709619 3.311894 4.129625 5.390305 7.444177 11.062379 19.451653
2025-02-02 2.655952 3.295961 4.190172 5.623923 8.099312 12.876362 26.078031
2025-02-09 2.582645 3.244664 4.191609 5.760896 8.611312 14.598550 34.510972
2025-02-16 2.465461 3.121495 4.073968 5.686506 8.716198 15.469117 41.452020
2025-02-23 2.367253 3.018972 3.978582 5.636809 8.857373 16.484705 51.141149
2025-03-02 2.275888 2.920692 3.881798 5.572846 8.956703 17.439998 63.402828
2025-03-09 2.195496 2.834003 3.796676 5.519700 9.068602 18.489995 80.991286
2025-03-16 2.129551 2.767015 3.740668 5.517932 9.304867 20.089976 116.313130
2025-03-23 2.087659 2.734123 3.737162 5.612866 9.784545 22.835442 220.464546
2025-03-30 2.009071 2.640730 3.627903 5.494830 9.732510 23.626847 326.394867
2025-04-06 1.934290 2.550004 3.518008 5.365873 9.632863 24.204521 505.141893
2025-04-13 1.850910 2.442760 3.375294 5.161637 9.313135 23.712335 602.376705
2025-04-20 1.827541 2.428429 3.388317 5.267727 9.819004 27.330498 85325.265321
2025-04-27 1.824705 2.446019 3.456373 5.492504 10.707934 34.133530 NaN
2025-05-04 1.806401 2.437757 3.478612 5.624183 11.376106 41.070541 NaN
2025-05-11 1.758754 2.379943 3.409802 5.552679 11.409284 43.620102 NaN
2025-05-18 1.717247 2.330669 3.353883 5.504896 11.511160 47.076257 NaN
2025-05-25 1.676051 2.280488 3.293977 5.443380 11.558122 50.292941 NaN